Weather anomalies as a factor of agroclimatic risks for Ukraine’s agriculture under climate change

Abstract

Aim. To identify the characteristics of weather anomalies in Ukraine in the context of current climate change and to assess the associated agroclimatic risks to agriculture, using the weather conditions of 2025 as an example. Materials and methods. The analysis was conducted based on daily observational data from Ukraine’s national hydrometeorological observation network for 2025 and the climatological norm for key meteorological factors for 1991–2020. The study covers the western, central, and northern regions of Ukraine, as well as the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. The areas where observations were not conducted or were conducted irregularly due to temporary occupation or war hostilities (which made it impossible to form continuous data series) were excluded from the study. Monthly weather reviews from the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center were used to analyze hazardous meteorological events. Spatiotemporal specificities and seasonal variability of indicators in 2025 were identified using climatological, statistical, and spatial analysis methods. The agricultural impacts of weather anomalies were assessed by comparing the obtained results with data from JRC MARS (Ben Aoun et al., 2025a, 2025b) on crop conditions and yields in Ukraine and Europe, as well as with global assessments by the FAO (FAO, 2025) regarding the impact of climate extremes on agrofood systems. Results. In Ukraine, 2025 ranked among the five warmest years since 1961; the annual average air temperature across most of the country was 1–2°C above the norm. Particularly pronounced were the rise in minimum temperatures, the decrease in the number of frost days, and the increase in tropical nights. Precipitation patterns were characterized by an overall deficit and sharp spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The most significant factors for agricultural production were insufficient winter moisture accumulation, the early resumption of growing after an abnormally warm March, three cold spells in April, a cold and wet May, summer heat, and a prolonged precipitation deficit in the south and east, as well as excessive July precipitation in the west. This combination of factors reduced the yield potential of winter crops in arid regions, created a risk of damage to rapeseed, fruit, and vegetable crops from late frosts, deteriorated conditions for the development of corn, sunflower, and soybean crops in the south and east, and complicated the harvest and reduced the quality of grain and rapeseed in the western regions. At the same time, sufficient moisture conditions in the northern and western regions supported the potential of summer crops. Conclusions. Weather conditions in 2025 demonstrated that, for Ukraine’s agriculture, climate risk is determined not only by general atmospheric warming but, above all, by a combination of drought, heat, late cold spells, and localized waterlogging during critical phases of crop development. Spatial contrasts in agrometeorological conditions are increasing, which heightens the need for regionalized climate services, early warning systems, adaptive crop and variety selection, optimization of fieldwork schedules, and soil moisture management.